Our assessment suggests that floodplain habitats to include portions or all of Sagavanirktok River, Colville River downstream of Umiat, Kukpuk, Noatak, Ikpikpuk, Meade, Kuk, and Kukpowruk River floodplains are currently vulnerable to invasion. Barrier islands are not anticipated to be vulnerable to invasion currently or in the near term, but nearly all barrier island areas are expected in increase in invasion risk by 2060.

Current

This dataset provides the potential of current non-native plant infestation in the North Slope. It was produced by combining the landscape condition model and the length of growing season. The current length of growing season was intersected with current landscape condition. Areas predicted to have higher probabilities of invasion potential by at least the most cold-tolerant suite of species are shown in warmer colors. It suggests that the region currently and into the near term is likely to have a non-native plant species restricted to a very small area. By 2060 however, all villages and the human footprint associated with the oil fields is expected to increase in probability of non-native plant invasion.

Near-term Future

This dataset provides the potential of near-term future non-native plant infestation in the North Slope. It uses the human footprint from the medium development scenario (2040), which was substituted for a near-term future (2025) development scenario throughout the project. Infestation Potential was produced by combining the landscape condition model and the length of growing season. The current length of growing season was intersected with landscape condition. Areas predicted to have higher probabilities of invasion potential by at least the most cold-tolerant suite of species are shown in warmer colors. It suggests that the region currently and into the near term is likely to have a non-native plant species restricted to a very small area. By 2060 however, all villages and the human footprint associated with the oil fields is expected to increase in probability of non-native plant invasion.

Long-term Future: Medium & High Development Scenarios

This dataset provides the potential of long-term future non-native plant infestation in the North Slope. It uses the human footprint from the medium development scenario (2040), which was substituted for a near-term future (2025) development scenario throughout the rest of the project. Infestation Potential was produced by combining the landscape condition model and the length of growing season. The current length of growing season was intersected with landscape condition. Areas predicted to have higher probabilities of invasion potential by at least the most cold-tolerant suite of species are shown in warmer colors. It suggests that the region currently and into the near term is likely to have a non-native plant species restricted to a very small area. By 2060 however, all villages and the human footprint associated with the oil fields is expected to increase in probability of non-native plant invasion.